US AND VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD CURVES: CHALLENGES IN RESPONDING TO NEGATIVE MACROECONOMIC FACTORS

Author(s): Pham T. D., Le N. K.

Rubric: Domestic and foreign trade

DOI: 10.21777/2587-554X-2026-3-72-82

Release: 2026-3 (58)

Pages: 72-82

Keywords: yield curve, government bonds, spot rates, forward rates, macroeconomic shock, interest-rate risk, market segmentation, Vietnam

Annotation: The article examines differences in the response of US and Vietnamese government bond yield curves to negative macroeconomic factors. The aim of the study is to identify how market structure and liquidity determine the rate and scale of changes in government bond yields. The empirical part combines a comparison of spot and forward rates as of December 1, 2025, and an event analysis of the publication of employment data in the United States as of August 2, 2024. The results show that the US curve is rapidly reflecting a deteriorating macroeconomic signal through a reassessment of monetary policy expectations, whereas changes in the Vietnamese curve in the short run remain limited and more dependent on domestic liquidity, investor structure, and market segmentation. Investor structure and market segmentation. The results clarify the limitations of cross-market hedging and the conditions for use of carry and roll-down strategies in the Vietnamese government bond market.

Bibliography: Pham T..D.., Le N..K.. US AND VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD CURVES: CHALLENGES IN RESPONDING TO NEGATIVE MACROECONOMIC FACTORS // Economics and Management. – 2026. – № 3 (58). – С. 72-82. doi: 10.21777/2587-554X-2026-3-72-82